Hurricane Lee dropped below major hurricane status in the Atlantic but forecast to target New England and Canada while the National Hurricane Center keeps its eye on Hurricane Margot and one other system with increasing chances to become the next tropical depression or storm.
As of 11 p.m., Lee still had 105 mph sustained winds making it a Category 2 hurricane located about 345 miles south-southwest of Bermuda and 920 miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts moving north-northwest at 9 mph. Its wind field has increased as well since Tuesday with hurricane-force winds extending out 115 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extending out 265 miles.
“A motion toward the north and an increase in forward speed are expected through Friday,” forecasters said. “On the forecast track, the center of Lee will pass west of Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night and then approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.”
A tropical storm warning is in effect for Bermuda with winds expected tonight or early Thursday and 1-2 inches of rain. Also late Thursday, a hurricane watch was issued for portions of Main to the U.S.-Canada border, a tropical storm watch was in place for coastal New England from Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine including Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket, and a storm surge watch was issued for Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket with some areas that could see 2-4 feet of surge.
“From Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches across portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. This could produce localized urban and small stream flooding,” the NHC stated in its advisory.
The still powerful hurricane had remained Category 3 through Wednesday morning since regaining major hurricane status on Sunday. That came after an erratic up-and-down lifespan last week that saw it jump from a Category 1 to Category 5 hurricane in less than half a day before dialing back down on the weekend.
“Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days, however, Lee is likely to remain a large and dangerous hurricane into the weekend,” forecasters said.
Category 3 #HurricaneLee is still churning over the Atlantic this morning, east of the Bahamas, in this infrared imagery via @NOAA's #GOESEast 🛰️. According to @NHC_Atlantic, #Lee is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to Bermuda beginning early tomorrow.
Latest:… pic.twitter.com/GWV0HasNkg
— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) September 13, 2023
The swells from the storm have made dangerous surf and rip current conditions along the U.S. coast.
Its five-day cone of uncertainty has it remaining a hurricane off the coast as it hones in on the Northeast U.S. and Canada, but then shifting its form away from a tropical cyclone, but still a system with wide and dangerous wind field.
“A number of factors — including Lee’s broad structure, increasing shear, and potential upwelling of cooler waters — are likely to lead to a very gradual decrease in the hurricane’s maximum winds during the next three days or so,” forecasters said. “In addition, Lee is likely to begin extratropical transition in two to three days, with that process expected to be complete just before the cyclone’s center reaches the coast of Maine, New Brunswick or Nova Scotia in about four days.”
The wind, rain and coastal flooding threats remain for portions of New England and Atlantic Canada starting Friday and continuing through the weekend.
“Watches may be required for portions of these areas later today or tonight,” forecasters said. “Due to Lee’s large size, hazards will extend well away from the center, and there will be little to no significance on exactly where the center reaches the coast.”
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, the NHC continues to track Hurricane Margot.
At 5 p.m., the Category 1 hurricane had grown to 90 mph sustained winds located about 790 miles west-southwest of the Azores moving north at 7 mph. Its hurricane-force winds extend out 70 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend out 230 miles.
“This motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed through Thursday. Margot is then likely to meander within weak steering currents through this weekend,” forecasters said. “Some weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours.”
Its swells are likely to affect the Azores today causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
The NHC is also tracking a broad area of low pressure spanning the eastern and central tropical Atlantic that with showers and thunderstorms showing better organization.
“Environmental conditions are favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as the low moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.
The NHC gives it a 80% chance to develop into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days and 90% in the next seven.
If it spins up into named-storm status, it would become Tropical Storm Nigel, the 14th named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30.