Norfolk thinks casino could bring in $44 million a year. Here’s where some of it could go.

Norfolk — The Pamunkey Indian Tribe’s proposed commercial casino could net Norfolk tens of millions in new taxes a year, according to a new city analysis unveiled Tuesday.

City Manager Chip Filer ran through his latest analysis at a City Council work session, the first new official projections shared with the public since December.

Filer estimated the city’s take at $34 million to $44 million each year, if the Pamunkey build the $500 million hotel-casino resort they’ve advertised. That would represent an increase of about 4 to 5 percent in annual city revenues — a boon for a city that’s laid off or furloughed hundreds of employees and cut millions from its budget as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

Some of that could end up going to beefed-up policing to handle thousands of new visitors, to treat gambling addiction, to fund arts and entertainment efforts and to schools.

That is, if it pans out.

Voting is ongoing for the referendum on whether to allow the tribe and its billionaire partner John Yarbrough to move ahead with construction or not.

If the casino measure passes, and the proposed casino gets built, Norfolk expects the new revenue to come from its cut of state gaming taxes, plus the local taxes the complex would pay, like real estate levies and taxes on food, beverages and hotel stays.

Filer, a career economist, projected that if the casino is built as planned and makes what comparable casino complexes bring in, like MGM’s National Harbor near Washington, D.C., the city would be looking at around $44.5 million.

If the planned casino ended up earning more along the lines of the average U.S. casino — less than the larger resorts Filer said were comparable to the tribe’s current proposal — the city would be in line for around $33.8 million.

And if something happens and the planned casino is built smaller than the tribe is now promising — a $350 million casino, rather than a $500 million one — the city would be looking at around $24.8 million.

Those estimates are considerably higher than the expectations of the state report released nearly a year ago.

As for what the city would do with that extra money? No decisions have been made yet, but Filer said they’d need to bolster public safety around the casino to handle thousands of visitors, which would probably cost between $6 million and $8 million.

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He also recommended 5% should go toward helping establish a gambling addiction program within the city’s Community Services Board to supplement funding that would come from the state.

Both of those issues — safety and addiction — have come up as concerns during public discussions on the casino.

Some slice of the casino taxes should go toward infrastructure and advertisement for arts and entertainment across the city, Filer said, though he didn’t say exactly how much.

Filer also noted that, due to the city’s funding formula for local education funding, at least a couple million from the local taxes would go straight into Norfolk Public Schools' coffers, though the council could always allot more.

Councilwoman Andria McClellan — long a critic of the casino deal — called Filer’s projections “rosy” and called on the city to leverage it’s influence to force the Pamunkey to commit to a hiring plan it had floated in recent weeks.

She advocated for an addendum to the city contract to include the tribe’s public promises to hire local and minority workers, saying anything not in writing “is PR window dressing.”

Ryan Murphy, 757-739-8582, ryan.murphy@pilotonline.com