‘We are not out of the woods’: COVID-19 will return to Virginia this fall, state health official warns

The summer may already seem like the end of an era: Fewer and fewer new cases of the coronavirus are being reported each day throughout Virginia.

But Dr. Danny Avula, state vaccine coordinator, said while vaccinations appear to be working, many more will be needed to achieve herd immunity levels high enough to deter COVID-19 in the future, especially as the delta variant, which ravaged India, rears its ugly head in the United States.

Public health officials will be pushing for more vaccinations in pockets of the state where inoculated residents are in low numbers. They also believe the state needs to get many more shots to young people, though the federal government might not clear an option for children under 12 until October or November.

Epidemiologists expect to see the disease return in the fall, following last year’s pattern. Viruses tend to ramp up in colder months, and because COVID-19 predominantly spreads indoors through respiratory droplets — found in breathing, coughing, singing and talking — there likely will be an encore.

“We are not out of the woods,” Avula said. “We anticipate to see an uptick of disease. And there are parts of our state that have really crazy levels of immunity, but there are many parts that don’t. And so, there’s a local context here, too, that if you are in a lower-vaccination-rate community, we could see big outbreaks coming up this fall and winter.”

That concern extends to this region — in particular, South Hampton Roads. Though Virginia this week reached President Joe Biden’s goal of 70% of all adults being vaccinated with at least one dose by July 4, most localities in this part of the state are far behind.

None of the five Southside cities has even reached 60%, according to Virginia Department of Health data. Norfolk and Portsmouth continue to have the lowest levels of vaccination coverage in the region. Only about 44% of Norfolk’s and 48% of Portsmouth’s adults have had at least one dose.

On the Peninsula and Eastern Shore, only James City and Northampton counties have reached Biden’s benchmark.

And those figures are just for one dose. Clinical research suggests that full inoculation — two doses of Pfizer or Moderna or one of Johnson & Johnson — provides much more resistance to COVID-19.

But when Virginia’s state of emergency expires June 30, public health officials say, getting the masses vaccinated will become that much more complicated.

One of the impacts of the executive order ending is that health agencies will no longer have access to federal money being used for large-scale vaccination efforts and contracted mobile sites. Though turnout for most of those clinics had dwindled to the point that they were no longer filling appointments, the transition has forced local health departments to figure how to do smaller operations.

Some are using vendors to assist with events. Others are using the resources they have or some combination of the two.

“In some cases, a team of folks goes out in a mobile van and actually uses the vehicle as the vaccination site, but in many cases, it’s just a small team of people who can show up and sit under a tent or sit at a table,” he said. “So much of vaccination work right now is this smaller scale, five, 10 people at a time, pop-up vaccinations at community events. And that’s what it’s going to look like for the next few months.”

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As the delta variant bears down on the United States, public health officials are urging all Americans — even those who have previously had the virus — to get vaccinated. The variant has now become the dominant strain of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom. Scientists say it is about 40% more contagious than some original strains.

Pfizer’s vaccine is proving to be about 80% effective against the variant, Avula said, but it’s not clear how effective natural immunity — the antibodies someone has from fighting off a COVID-19 infection — is at stopping the disease.

In general, he said, vaccine immunity seems to have a “more robust antibody response” than natural immunity.

“We really do encourage people, even if they’ve had COVID and have some degree of natural immunity” to get vaccinated, Avula said. “The vaccine tends to boost that even more and provide more protection.”

As Virginians make summer plans, public health officials offer these COVID-19 tips:

If you’re planning a trip within the United States, you don’t need to get tested before or after travel or self-quarantine after travel.
For summer camps, fully vaccinated teens don’t need to wear masks or stay 6 feet from others, unless in certain situations, such as using public transportation or entering a health facility. Camps can support staff or campers who choose to continue to wear masks even if vaccinated.
Pools, particularly outdoors, are fairly low-risk environments for COVID-19, especially if children are getting into the pool to swim for a lesson and aren’t that physically close to others. Bigger groups of children horsing around, especially in indoor pools, could still spread the virus.

For more information on where to find vaccines, visit vaccinate.virginia.gov or www.vaccines.gov. For phone assistance, call 1-877-VAX-IN-VA.

Elisha Sauers, 757-839-4754, elisha.sauers@pilotonline.com