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As the entire state moves to expand coronavirus vaccines to the general adult population, more than one in four Virginians over the age of 70 still haven’t received a first dose.
Despite the older set having been eligible for shots since January, uptake has slowed in recent weeks, public health officials say. They attribute that decline to several factors, including difficulty accessing the shots and continued vaccine hesitancy.
Seniors are among the highest priorities in the vaccination plan because of the heightened risks for serious illness and death. About 74% of people who have died from COVID-19 in Virginia were 70 or older.
New cases have leveled off at a higher rate than experts would have wanted following the winter’s surge. That, coupled with the strengthening transmission of the more infectious U.K. variant, has health experts concerned that another rise in cases could come this summer.
In a forecast that analyzed what would happen if Virginians relaxed their prevention methods and the variant was allowed to spread easily from person to person, the pandemic showed a new peak in mid-July, according to a new UVA Biocomplexity Institute report.
To lessen the impact, public health officials are calling on residents to continue wearing masks, keeping 6 feet from others and frequently washing their hands while allowing more people to get vaccinated.
As of now, there are 18 new cases per 100,000 people per day, according to the Virginia Department of Health, but several health districts, including Norfolk, Hampton, the Peninsula and Western Tidewater, are starting to see slow growth in infections.
About 6.3% of standard nasal swab tests are coming back positive statewide.
So far, there have been about 493,000 confirmed cases statewide and 10,451 suspected deaths.
During the past week, 42 people in Hampton Roads were reported to have died of the virus: nine in Portsmouth; seven in Newport News; five in Hampton; four each in Norfolk and Virginia Beach; three in Chesapeake; two each in Gloucester and Isle of Wight counties, Franklin and Suffolk; and one each in Accomack and James City counties.
The number of coronavirus cases in the United States rose to 31 million last week, according to Johns Hopkins University, and about 560,000 Americans have died. Around the globe, 134.2 million people have had confirmed infections, with 2.9 million deaths.
Health experts maintain that vaccines will be the most powerful tool in ending the pandemic.
Last week, Virginia averaged about 77,000 shots a day. About 1.7 million Virginians, or 20% of the population, had been fully inoculated as of Friday, and close to 3 million had received at least one shot. Those figures don’t include about 237,000 vaccinations from federal sources to military, veterans, prison inmates and others.
Vaccine supplies throughout the state have rapidly increased, with the exception of a setback from Johnson & Johnson. For this week, Virginia will receive 117,000 first doses of Pfizer and 86,000 of Moderna.
A little less than 15,000 doses of the single-shot J&J vaccine are coming, a plunge from the 124,000 originally expected. The supply shortage is the consequence of a mixing problem at a Baltimore plant that led to 15 million doses being pulled out of distribution.
Virginia public health officials say that could slow the pace at the beginning of Phase 2 for many localities, but they don’t consider the supply issue to be a long-term problem. J&J has said it is still on track to produce 100 million doses by the end of May.
All of Virginia will expand vaccine eligibility to the general adult population, which includes anyone 16 or older, by April 18.
“Really, the take-home message is that by the end of May, there will be enough supply and enough appointments for everybody who wants to get vaccinated,” said Dr. Danny Avula, state vaccination coordinator, during a call with reporters Friday.
Virginia Beach’s case counts have continued to be the region’s highest, with 544 newly confirmed positive cases.
High caseloads are expected in bigger cities, but some localities with fewer people saw greater rates of new cases per capita. Franklin had the highest rate of infections in Hampton Roads, with about 36 per 100,000 people. By comparison, Virginia Beach had 17 and Norfolk had 21.
Here’s a look at the pandemic around the region for the past week:
Virginia Beach had a daily case average of 78, down from 79 a week ago.
Norfolk reported 353 new cases, with a daily case average of 50, up from 48 a week ago.
Newport News reported 281 new cases, with a daily case average of 40, down from 51.
Chesapeake reported 263 new cases, with a daily case average of 38, down from 39.
Portsmouth reported 152 new cases, with a daily case average of 22, up from 18.
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Hampton reported 190 new cases, with a daily case average of 27, down from 32.
James City County reported 69 new cases, with a daily case average of 10, down from 15.
York County reported 71 new cases, with a daily case average of 10, down from 13.
Suffolk reported 114 new cases, with a daily case average of 16, down from 18.
Williamsburg reported 30 new cases, with a daily case average of four, down from 11.
For other pandemic data, go to www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus.
Elisha Sauers, 757-839-4754, elisha.sauers@pilotonline.com