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With 42% of Virginians having received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, public health officials believe the state is more than halfway to reaching herd immunity.
Thought to be met when 75 to 80% of the population have shots, herd immunity is the level of vaccinated people needed to reduce the chances of other vulnerable people coming in contact with the coronavirus.
Overall, vaccination disparities are decreasing, but even in Hampton Roads, the situation varies dramatically by locality.
In James City and Northampton counties, for instance, the level of vaccine coverage in the community is over 50%. Meanwhile, Norfolk and Portsmouth have coverage rates below 28%, according to a study by the state health department and UVA Biocomplexity Institute.
“Ultimately, the degree to which communities can vaccinate the most vulnerable is critical,” the report stated. “For the 80 years and older population, it is safer to be living in Albemarle, James City and Lancaster counties with coverage rates in this age group of over 85%, than in Carroll, Lee, Patrick and Tazewell counties where coverage in this age group is currently below 60%.”
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A new forecast from the institute suggests the combination of relaxed prevention methods, an under-vaccinated population and a dominant U.K. variant could lead to another peak in mid-July. In Hampton Roads, Suffolk and Virginia Beach are experiencing slow growth trends.
To reduce the impact of another surge, public health officials are cautioning residents to continue wearing masks, keep 6 feet from others and frequently wash their hands while more people get shots.
Over the past week, 5.8% of standard nasal swab tests came back positive for the virus statewide.
So far, there have been about 507,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 10,666 suspected deaths.
In Eastern Virginia, about 73% of hospital beds are occupied, according to data from the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association. Intensive care unit hospitalizations have decreased for the past month, and emergency room visits for coronavirus-like symptoms have fallen for two weeks.
During the past week, 38 people were reported to have died of the virus in Hampton Roads: eight in Virginia Beach; seven in Norfolk; six in Hampton; four in Chesapeake; three each in Portsmouth and Suffolk; two each in Newport News and York County; and one each in Isle of Wight and James City counties and Williamsburg.
The number of coronavirus cases in the United States rose to 32 million last week, according to Johns Hopkins University, and about 570,000 Americans have died. Around the globe, 145 million people have had confirmed infections, with 3.1 million deaths.
Virginia Beach’s case counts have continued to be Hampton Roads’ highest, with 513 newly confirmed positive cases, followed by Chesapeake with 271 and Norfolk with 222.
High caseloads are expected in bigger cities, but sometimes localities with fewer people see greater rates of new cases per capita. Last week, Newport News led the area with the highest rate, with about 18 per 100,000 people. That was not far ahead of Portsmouth, Hampton, Virginia Beach and Chesapeake, all of which had 16 to 17 cases per 100,000 people.
Health experts maintain vaccines will be the most powerful tool in ending the pandemic.
Virginia health officials have told providers to immediately resume use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine after U.S. officials on Friday lifted an 11-day pause on the maker’s single-dose shot. Scientific advisers decided its benefits outweigh a rare risk of blood clot.
The state also expects to receive 126,000 first doses of Pfizer and 93,000 of Moderna this week.
Despite the state’s decision to stop using the Johnson & Johnson vaccine while the federal government investigated it, Virginia still administered an average 76,000 shots a day, a decrease of just 2.5% from the previous week.
About 2.3 million Virginians, or 27% of the population, had been fully inoculated as of Friday. Those figures don’t include the 308,000 people in the state who have been vaccinated through the military, Veterans Affairs and federal prisons.
All Virginians ages 16 and older are now eligible to get a COVID-19 vaccine. Gov. Ralph Northam’s administration expects all adults who want shots will be able to get at least their first dose by the end of May.
Here’s a look at the pandemic around the region for the past week:
Virginia Beach reported 513 new cases, with a daily case average of 73, down from 80 a week ago.
Norfolk reported 222 new cases, with a daily case average of 32, down from 46.
Newport News reported 219 new cases, with a daily case average of 31, down from 37.
Chesapeake reported 271 new cases, with a daily case average of 39, down from 41.
Portsmouth reported 111 new cases, with a daily case average of 16, down from 20.
Hampton reported 157 new cases, with a daily case average of 22, down from 27.
James City County reported 52 new cases, with a daily case average of seven, down from 12.
York County reported 51 new cases, with a daily case average of seven, flat with the previous week.
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Suffolk reported 79 new cases, with a daily case average of 11, down from 17.
Williamsburg reported 12 new cases, with a daily case average of two, flat with the previous week.
For other pandemic data, go to www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus.
The vaccinate.virginia.gov links to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Vaccine Finder website, which has a searchable map-based tool to find vaccination appointments. For phone assistance, call 1-877-VAX-IN-VA.
Elisha Sauers, 757-839-4754, elisha.sauers@pilotonline.com