As delta COVID-19 variant spreads, fewer Virginians getting 1st doses of vaccine

As the delta variant spreads in Virginia, people receiving first doses of coronavirus vaccines have flattened, showing early signs of dropping off, pandemic data scientists say.

The variant, which caused devastating outbreaks in India, is on the rise, with labs detecting more cases in the state each week. Experts believe delta is the dominant mutation circulating — or will be soon.

The majority of Virginia, including most Hampton Roads cities and counties, is experiencing slow growth in COVID-19 infections, according to a forecast by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute.

Across the state, 3.8% of standard nasal swab tests were positive last week, a rate that has more than doubled over the past month, according to Virginia Department of Health data. In Hampton Roads, rates are higher, with nearly all in the 5% to 8% range.

Over 540 new coronavirus cases are being diagnosed throughout Virginia each day, up from the 100 to 200 averages of June.

With lax prevention behavior, the state could expect daily cases to rise to 32 per 100,000 people in August, and that could last well into the fall, according to the analysis, which is projecting the peak to come sooner than in its report last week.

To reduce the chance of outbreaks, public health officials are advising unvaccinated residents to get the shots. For those who can’t, they urge mask-wearing, keeping 6 feet from others and washing hands frequently.

Health experts say vaccination will be the most effective tool at stopping the pandemic, which has killed 11,500 Virginians and infected over 534,000. Data indicates that unvaccinated people have made up 99% of Virginia’s COVID-19 illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths since late January — which public health officials hope convinces those who are still on the fence about the shots.

Last week, a group of 29 medical organizations representing tens of thousands of health care professionals in Virginia released a joint statement urging residents to get vaccinated, describing it as a “pandemic of the unvaccinated.”

The joint statement came on the heels of the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association, one of the signatories, calling on hospital systems to institute COVID-19 vaccination requirements for their employees. No Hampton Roads hospitals have agreed to do so.

In areas with high vaccination percentages, epidemiologists expect that outbreaks will still occur among unvaccinated individuals but will have less ability to spread.

The number of coronavirus cases in the United States rose to 34.3 million last week, according to Johns Hopkins University, and about 610,000 Americans have died. While cases have declined nationally, the global pandemic remains in full swing. About 192.8 million people have had confirmed infections, with 4.1 million deaths.

During the past week, six people were reported to have died from the virus in Hampton Roads: two in Hampton; and one each in Virginia Beach and Gloucester, Mathews and Middlesex counties.

Virginia Beach had the highest count of new infections in the region last week, reporting 274 new cases. It was followed by Chesapeake, with 140, and Hampton, with 102.

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High caseloads are expected in bigger cities, but sometimes communities with fewer people see greater rates of new cases per capita. For last week, Middlesex County ranked the highest in the area based on population size, at about 13 per 100,000 people. By comparison, Virginia Beach had about nine per 100,000.

In Eastern Virginia, intensive care unit hospitalizations have been increasing for the past month and emergency room visits for coronavirus-like symptoms have been rising for about seven weeks, according to hospital association data provided to the health department.

About 4.6 million Virginians, or 53% of the population, had been fully inoculated as of Friday — the same rate as last week. Those figures include people in the state who have been vaccinated through the military, Veterans Affairs and federal prisons. Approximately 59% of Virginians have at least one shot.

Here’s a look at vaccination rates throughout the region. These figures do not include the 439,000 doses administered to Virginians by federal agencies, such as the military, because location information has not been provided for them:

In Virginia Beach, 60% of adults and 50% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 45% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Norfolk, 46% of adults and 39% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 34% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Newport News, 55% of adults and 44% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 40% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Chesapeake, 58% of adults and 47% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 43% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Portsmouth, 50% of adults and 40% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 35% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Hampton, 55% of adults and 45% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 40% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In James City County, 73% of adults and 62% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 56% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In York County, 65% of adults and 53% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 48% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Suffolk, 57% of adults and 46% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 41% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Williamsburg, 53% of adults and 48% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 44% of all residents are fully inoculated.

For other pandemic data, go to www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus.

For more information on where to find vaccines, visit vaccinate.virginia.gov or www.vaccines.gov. For phone assistance, call 1-877-VAX-IN-VA.

Elisha Sauers, 757-839-4754, elisha.sauers@pilotonline.com