No fireworks expected from coronavirus, but delta variant is newest threat

Heading into the Fourth of July weekend, with its promises of barbecues and pool parties, Virginia’s rate of new coronavirus infections was low but had crept up over the previous week.

Across the state, about 1.8% of standard COVID-19 nasal swab tests were positive, a slight uptick from 1.6%, according to Virginia Department of Health data. In Hampton Roads and on the Eastern Shore, most rates are higher.

Under-vaccinated pockets of the region could leave some communities vulnerable to the delta variant, which wreaked havoc on India. Public health officials say it’s gaining ground in the United States and Virginia.

Though nine out of every 10 coronavirus cases caused by a variant statewide are the result of the U.K. mutation, 67 were confirmed to be delta as of Friday. Epidemiologists have found the majority involving that variant come in people who did not travel outside the country, meaning it’s moving from person to person.

At least seven delta cases were in Hampton Roads.

With lax behavior and delta spreading, the state could expect a small but sustained peak of six daily cases per 100,000 people beginning in August and continuing into the fall, according to a recent forecast by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute. For perspective, the peak in January was 68.

To reduce the chance of outbreaks, public health officials are advising unvaccinated residents to continue wearing masks, keeping 6 feet from others and washing hands frequently.

There have been about 530,000 confirmed coronavirus cases and 11,423 suspected deaths in the state.

During the past week, 10 people were reported to have died from the virus in Hampton Roads — three in Norfolk; two in Virginia Beach; and one each in Chesapeake, Hampton, Portsmouth, Suffolk and York County.

The number of coronavirus cases in the United States rose to 33.7 million last week, according to Johns Hopkins University, and about 605,000 Americans have died. Around the globe, 182.3 million people have had confirmed infections, with 4 million deaths.

Virginia Beach had the highest count of new infections in the region last week, reporting 65 new cases. It was followed by Chesapeake, with 39, and Norfolk and Newport News, which each had 35.

High caseloads are expected in bigger cities, but sometimes communities with fewer people see greater rates of new cases per capita. Poquoson led the area with the highest rate, with about five per 100,000 people. By comparison, Norfolk and Virginia Beach each had about two per 100,000 people.

In Eastern Virginia, about 72% of hospital beds are occupied, according to data from the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association. Intensive care unit hospitalizations have decreased for 100 days, but emergency room visits for coronavirus-like symptoms have fluctuated, with a slight rise at the end of June that now appears to be decreasing.

About 4.3 million Virginians, or 51% of the population, had been fully inoculated as of Friday. Those figures include people in the state who have been vaccinated through the military, Veterans Affairs and federal prisons. Approximately 59% of Virginians, including residents too young to receive it yet, have at least one shot.

Here’s a look at vaccination rates throughout the region:

In Virginia Beach, 60% of adults and 49% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 43% of all residents are fully inoculated.

In Norfolk, 45% of adults and 38% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 32% of all residents are fully inoculated.

In Newport News, 55% of adults and 44% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 37% of all residents are fully inoculated.

In Chesapeake, 58% of adults and 47% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 40% of all residents are fully inoculated.

In Portsmouth, 49% of adults and 39% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 33% of all residents are fully inoculated.

In Hampton, 55% of adults and 45% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 38% of all residents are fully inoculated.

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In James City County, 74% of adults and 62% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 54% of all residents are fully inoculated.

In York County, 66% of adults and 54% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 46% of all residents are fully inoculated.

In Suffolk, 56% of adults and 45% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 39% of all residents are fully inoculated.

In Williamsburg, 54% of adults and 49% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 42% of all residents are fully inoculated.

For other pandemic data, go to www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus.

For more information on where to find vaccines, visit vaccinate.virginia.gov or www.vaccines.gov. For phone assistance, call 1-877-VAX-IN-VA.

Elisha Sauers, 757-839-4754, elisha.sauers@pilotonline.com