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About 60% of the state’s ZIP codes reported no new cases of the coronavirus over the past week, University of Virginia pandemic researchers say.
Only about 1.5% of standard nasal swab tests are coming back positive for COVID-19 in Virginia, despite an overall slow down in vaccinations, but nearly all of Hampton Roads has higher rates, according to Virginia Department of Health data.
Low vaccination coverage in pockets of the region could leave an opening for the delta variant, which has wreaked havoc in India, to drive cases up again. Public health officials say it’s gaining ground in the United States and Virginia. Unvaccinated people, including those who have already had the coronavirus, could be at risk of getting sick, they say.
Under the worst-case scenario, with lax behavior and more contagious variants spreading, the state could expect a small peak of eight daily cases per 100,000 people during the week of July 25, according to a recent forecast by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute. For perspective, the peak in January was 68.
Meanwhile, mass vaccination sites in the area are closing their doors or scaling back to fewer days and hours, as public health officials shift to smaller-scale efforts and mobile clinics.
Over the past eight weeks, the state’s average vaccination rate has plummeted. In mid-April, the state was administering some 78,000 shots a day. That rate has since fallen to about 28,000.
To reduce the impact of a surge, public health officials are advising unvaccinated residents to continue wearing masks, keeping 6 feet from others and washing hands frequently.
So far, there have been about 528,000 confirmed coronavirus cases and 11,342 suspected deaths in the state.
During the past week, 15 people were reported to have died from the virus in Hampton Roads: three each in Virginia Beach and Newport News; two each in Chesapeake and York County; and one each in Accomack County, Hampton, Norfolk, Portsmouth and Poquoson.
The number of coronavirus cases in the United States rose to 33.5 million last week, according to Johns Hopkins University, and about 601,000 Americans have died. Around the globe, 177.6 million people have had confirmed infections, with 3.8 million deaths.
Norfolk, which has one of the lowest levels of vaccinated residents in Hampton Roads, had the highest count of new infections last week, surpassing Virginia Beach, which historically almost always has the most. Norfolk reported 40 new cases over the past week, followed by Newport News, with 36. Chesapeake and the Beach each had 33.
High caseloads are expected in bigger cities, but sometimes communities with fewer people see greater rates of new cases per capita. Franklin led the area with the highest rate, with about five per 100,000 people. By comparison, Norfolk had two and Virginia Beach had one per 100,000 people.
In Eastern Virginia, about 73% of hospital beds are occupied, according to data from the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association. Intensive care unit hospitalizations have decreased for three months, and emergency room visits for coronavirus-like symptoms have also fallen for about 10 weeks.
About 4.2 million Virginians, or 49% of the population, had been fully inoculated as of Friday. Those figures include people in the state who have been vaccinated through the military, Veterans Affairs and federal prisons. Approximately 58% of Virginians have at least one shot.
Mobile clinics run by private vendors will be popping up throughout Hampton Roads next week to provide vaccines in predominantly rural areas as well as in Black and Hispanic communities. The vaccinators will offer the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which only requires one dose. Virginians under age 18 are not eligible to get a J&J shot, as only Pfizer’s two-dose vaccine has been authorized for use in teens 12 to 17 years old.
Here’s a look at the pandemic around the region:
Virginia Beach reported 33 new cases, with a daily case average of five, down from seven.
Norfolk reported 40 new cases, with a daily case average of six, flat with the previous week.
Newport News reported 36 new cases, with a daily case average of five, up from four.
Chesapeake reported 33 new cases, with a daily case average of five, down from seven.
Portsmouth reported 22 new cases, with a daily case average of one, up from three.
Hampton reported 16 new cases, with a daily case average of two, down from three.
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James City County reported five new cases, with a daily case average of one, down from two.
York County reported seven new cases, with a daily case average of one, down from two.
Suffolk reported six new cases, with a daily case average of one, flat with the previous week.
Williamsburg reported no new cases, with a daily case average of zero for the fifth consecutive week.
For other pandemic data, go to www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus.
For more information on where to find vaccines, visit vaccinate.virginia.gov or www.vaccines.gov. For phone assistance, call 1-877-VAX-IN-VA.
Elisha Sauers, 757-839-4754, elisha.sauers@pilotonline.com