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Virginia’s average coronavirus vaccination rate has dropped more than 15% over the past three weeks, indicating that about 12,000 fewer people a day are getting shots.
In mid-April, the state was administering some 78,000 vaccines a day. That average dipped to 66,000 Friday.
Though new COVID-19 cases continue to fall, with just 4.4% of standard nasal swab tests coming back positive last week, data scientists studying the pandemic’s trends believe a summer surge is possible if the U.K. variant spreads, because there isn’t enough immunity in the population.
It’s estimated about 63% of Virginia’s coronavirus cases now are the more infectious strain, though the data is volatile, according to a recent presentation by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute.
Currently, the Eastern Virginia region, which includes Hampton Roads, has the lowest level of combined vaccinated residents and people wanting to get the vaccine in the state, according to the institute’s analysis, which used Facebook-administered and traditional phone surveys with other data sources.
Their forecast for a scenario involving lax prevention among Virginians and dominant variant transmission shows another potential peak at the beginning of August, slightly higher than what the state experienced in mid-January.
To reduce the impact of another possible surge, public health officials are cautioning residents to continue wearing masks, keeping 6 feet from others and washing their hands frequently while more people get vaccinated.
Gov. Ralph Northam announced last week plans to lift all coronavirus restrictions but the mask mandate by mid-June. For face coverings, he intends to follow the guidance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Virginians who are vaccinated no longer need to wear masks outdoors except at large crowded events, such as concerts or graduation ceremonies, he said at a news conference Thursday. Masks are still required for everyone in indoor public spaces.
So far, there have been about 517,400 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 10,874 suspected deaths.
During the past week, 27 people were reported to have died of the virus in Hampton Roads: six in Virginia Beach; four each in Chesapeake and Norfolk; three each in Portsmouth and Hampton; two each in Suffolk and Isle of Wight County; and one each in Gloucester County, Newport News and Williamsburg.
The number of coronavirus cases in the United States rose to 32.6 million last week, according to Johns Hopkins University, and about 581,000 Americans have died. Around the globe, 156.3 million people have had confirmed infections, with 3.3 million deaths.
Virginia Beach’s case counts have continued to be Hampton Roads’ highest, with 313 newly confirmed positive cases in the past week, followed by Norfolk with 173 and Chesapeake with 161.
High caseloads are expected in bigger cities, but sometimes localities with fewer people see greater rates of new cases per capita. For the past two weeks, Portsmouth has led the area with the highest rate, with about 18 per 100,000 people. The rest of South Hampton Roads’ cities had 10 or fewer cases per 100,000 people.
In Eastern Virginia, about 74% of hospital beds are occupied, according to data from the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association. Intensive care unit hospitalizations have decreased for six weeks, and emergency room visits for coronavirus-like symptoms have also fallen for about four weeks.
Health experts maintain that vaccines will be the most powerful tool in ending the pandemic.
About 2.9 million Virginians, or 34% of the population, had been fully inoculated as of Friday. Those figures don’t include the 357,000 people in the state who have been vaccinated through the military, Veterans Affairs and federal prisons. Approximately 46% of Virginians have at least one shot.
All Virginians ages 16 and older are now eligible to get a COVID-19 vaccine, and children ages 12 and up will likely become eligible for the Pfizer vaccine soon, if federal agencies approve it for emergency use authorization.
The Northam administration expects all adults who want shots to be able to get at least their first dose by the end of May.
Here’s a look at the pandemic around the region for the past week:
Virginia Beach reported 313 new cases, with a daily case average of 45, down from 60.
Norfolk reported 173 new cases, with a daily case average of 25, down from 32.
Newport News reported 121 new cases, with a daily case average of 17, down from 25.
Chesapeake reported 161 new cases, with a daily case average of 23, down from 32.
Portsmouth reported 119 new cases, with a daily case average of 17, up from 16.
Hampton reported 128 new cases, with a daily case average of 18, up from 17.
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James City County reported 39 new cases, with a daily case average of six, flat with the previous week.
York County reported 31 new cases, with a daily case average of four, down from seven.
Suffolk reported 50 new cases, with a daily case average of seven, down from 11.
Williamsburg reported seven new cases, with a daily case average of one, flat with the previous week.
For other pandemic data, go to www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus.
The vaccinate.virginia.gov will now link to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s VaccineFinder website, which has a searchable map-based tool to find vaccination appointments. For phone assistance, call 1-877-VAX-IN-VA.
Elisha Sauers, 757-839-4754, elisha.sauers@pilotonline.com