30% chance winter coronavirus cases could top summer surge, forecasters say

Virginia so far has not seen a repeat of last fall’s increased coronavirus spread, reducing the likely impact of a holiday surge.

About 5.6% of standard nasal swab tests came back positive for COVID-19 statewide last week, according to the Virginia Department of Health, and about 1,300 new cases are being diagnosed each day — 100 fewer than last week. Virginians hospitalized also dropped to 932 as of Friday, a 13% decline from the week prior, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

But the transmission level is not much lower than at this time last year, when there were no vaccinated residents. The positive test rate was 5.8% then, and the incidence rate — the frequency that a new illness occurs in a community over a week — was the same as today, about 15 per 100,000 people.

Infectious disease modelers at the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute caution that a large surge is still possible. About 2.6 million Virginians have not had any shots.

Some 5.4 million Virginians are fully vaccinated — 63% of the population. About 670,000 residents, or 8% of the population, have received a third COVID-19 vaccine. While the number receiving an extra shot is steadily climbing, the rate of new Virginians becoming fully inoculated has remained flat for a couple of weeks.

The university and state health department recently partnered with the Metaculus forecasting platform to provide more insight into the pandemic. Metaculus takes forecasts from volunteers and aggregates predictions from the best modelers.

Metaculus forecasters say there’s a 30% chance a new peak will top the delta variant-fueled surge of late summer.

Public health experts warn that these predictions are always changing with new information, and slight differences in behavior and vaccinations could alter the course of the pandemic.

Many newly eligible 5 to 11-year-old children will have access to the Pfizer vaccine over the next few months. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Dr. Rochelle Walensky signed off on vaccines for the younger age group Tuesday.

Though children and teens tend to have milder illnesses, they are making up a larger share of COVID-19 cases now — nearly one in four infections. In Virginia, over 136,000 children have tested positive, and 993 have been hospitalized with severe cases. Another child died over the past week, raising the juvenile death toll to 11.

To assist with the growing scope of the campaign, a clinic at Military Circle Mall, 880 N. Military Hwy., offers vaccine appointments from 10 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Tuesday-Saturday. On Thursday, the first day vaccines were rolled out to young children, 127 were vaccinated.

The clinic, set up in the old Macy’s store, also conducts free COVID-19 tests 2 p.m. to 6 p.m. every Monday.

There have been at least 693,000 confirmed cases in the state, with 14,125 suspected deaths.

Unvaccinated people have made up the vast majority of the state’s serious illnesses. Though breakthrough cases are happening more often, they are still considered uncommon. There have been 50,144 cases statewide, with 494 ending in death.

Some 46.3 million infections have been reported throughout the United States, according to Johns Hopkins University, and 752,000 Americans have died. About 248.8 million people have had confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide, with five million deaths.

President Joe Biden’s administration has been encouraging widespread vaccinations as the quickest way to end the pandemic. A mandate from the White House requiring vaccines for workers at companies with more than 100 employees is intended to stem the spread. Workers who don’t get shots will be forced to get tested weekly and wear masks beginning Jan. 4. Failure to comply could result in $14,000 per violation.

But attorneys general in 11 states sued Friday, challenging that policy. The lawsuit, filed in federal court in St. Louis, argues the authority to impose vaccinations lies with states, not the federal government.

Hampton Roads had 36 reported fatalities last week: five each in Newport News and Virginia Beach; four each in Suffolk and York County; three in Poquoson; two each in Accomack, Gloucester and Middlesex counties and Chesapeake, Norfolk and Portsmouth; and one each in Isle of Wight County, Franklin and Hampton.

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There were about 1,500 new infections reported in the region last week. Virginia Beach’s caseload continues to be the highest, with 332 new reports.

Large caseloads are expected in bigger cities, but some communities with fewer people see greater rates of new cases per capita. For last week, Franklin ranked the highest in the region based on population size, at 30 per 100,000 people. It was triple the rates seen in Virginia Beach and Norfolk, with 11 and 9 per 100,000, respectively.

Here’s a look at vaccination rates throughout the region. These figures do not include the 631,000 doses administered to Virginians by the federal government, such as military, because location information has not been provided for them:

In Virginia Beach, 71% of adults and 60% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 54% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Norfolk, 56% of adults and 48% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 42% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Newport News, 68% of adults and 55% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 49% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Chesapeake, 70% of adults and 58% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 52% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Portsmouth, 63% of adults and 52% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 45% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Hampton, 67% of adults and 56% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 49% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In James City County, 82% of adults and 70% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 63% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Poquoson, 79% of adults and 66% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 60% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In York County, 74% of adults and 61% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 55% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Suffolk, 70% of adults and 58% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 51% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Williamsburg, 59% of adults and 54% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 48% of all residents are fully inoculated.

For other pandemic data, go to www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus.

For more information on where to find vaccines, visit vaccinate.virginia.gov or www.vaccines.gov. For phone assistance, call 1-877-VAX-IN-VA.

The Associated Press contributed to this story.

Elisha Sauers, 757-839-4754, elisha.sauers@pilotonline.com