Delta cases dip, but public health experts wary of another winter wave

The pandemic surge that caused throngs of serious illnesses and deaths in late summer appears to have come to a head.

But whether Virginia will experience a repeat of last winter’s coronavirus wave, compounded by the pestilent delta variant, is unknown.

Throughout the commonwealth, cases remain high but have tapered over the past three weeks. About 9% of standard nasal swab tests came back positive last week, according to Virginia Department of Health data, and close to 2,800 new cases are being diagnosed each day, down from about 3,200.

Overall transmission has dropped, though the spread in some areas, such as Suffolk and the Eastern Shore, continues to grow.

The number of Virginians hospitalized for confirmed or suspected COVID-19 was 2,106 as of Friday, a 10% decrease from the prior week. More than one in four were in an intensive care unit, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association. Of those critical patients, 64% were on ventilators.

The association is now sharing data on hospital bed availability, which showed that 378 ICU beds and 1,893 non-ICU beds were free statewide as of Friday.

Infectious disease modelers at the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute are concerned the pandemic could mimic last year and skyrocket around Thanksgiving. If it does, the upturn could handily surpass January’s peak, due to the more contagious strain, according to a new analysis.

About 5.1 million residents are fully vaccinated against the coronavirus, a count that has been flat for the past week. They make up a 60% share of Virginia’s population.

That leaves 2.7 million who haven’t received any doses — enough to give the virus room to run, epidemiologists say.

Confirmed cases have risen to at least 651,000 in the state, with 12,806 suspected deaths.

Some 43.5 million infections have been reported throughout the United States, according to Johns Hopkins University, and 699,000 Americans have died. The death toll makes COVID-19 the deadliest pandemic in U.S. history, eclipsing the Spanish flu of 1918, according to the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention.

About 234 million people have had confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide, with 4.8 million deaths.

Unvaccinated people have made up the vast majority of the state’s serious illnesses.

Though so-called “breakthrough cases,” infections in fully vaccinated individuals, are happening more often, they are still considered uncommon. So far, there have been 27,318 statewide. The death count — 273 — did not rise over the past week.

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About 3,800 more people in Hampton Roads were positive last week, and 65 new deaths were reported: 10 each in Chesapeake and Newport News; eight in Suffolk; seven in Virginia Beach; five each in Accomack County and Norfolk; three each in Gloucester and James City counties, Hampton and Portsmouth; two each in Isle of Wight and York counties and Franklin; and one each in Mathews and Middlesex counties.

Virginia Beach’s caseload was the highest in the region but dropped back below the 1,000 threshold, reporting 822 new infections.

Large caseloads are expected in bigger cities, but some communities with fewer people see greater rates of new cases per capita. For last week, Franklin ranked the highest in the region again based on population size, at 109 per 100,000 people. By comparison, Virginia Beach had 26 and Norfolk had 27.

Here’s a look at vaccination rates throughout the region. These figures do not include the 601,000 doses administered to Virginians by the federal government, such as military, because location information has not been provided for them:

In Virginia Beach, 68% of adults and 57% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 51% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Norfolk, 53% of adults and 45% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 39% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Newport News, 63% of adults and 52% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 46% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Chesapeake, 66% of adults and 55% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 49% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Portsmouth, 59% of adults and 48% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 41% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Hampton, 63% of adults and 53% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 46% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In James City County, 79% of adults and 67% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 60% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Poquoson, 75% of adults and 63% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 57% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In York County, 71% of adults and 59% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 53% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Suffolk, 66% of adults and 54% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 48% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Williamsburg, 57% of adults and 53% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 47% of all residents are fully inoculated.

For other pandemic data, go to www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus.

For more information on where to find vaccines, visit vaccinate.virginia.gov or www.vaccines.gov. For phone assistance, call 1-877-VAX-IN-VA.

Elisha Sauers, 757-839-4754, elisha.sauers@pilotonline.com