Latest coronavirus surge could peak in early October, forecast shows

Virginia crossed the threshold of having 5 million residents fully vaccinated against the coronavirus last week, representing 59% of the population.

It’s a public-health landmark as the state continues its charge to persuade hesitant Virginians to roll up their sleeves. After a summer lull, jabs have picked up again, spurred by rising infection rates and vaccination mandates.

But with about 2.8 million residents who haven’t received any doses, epidemiologists say the virus is still capable of spreading easily.

Immunity could be closer to 61%, according to an analysis by the University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute. The scientists used statistical models to assess immunity as a combination of people with antibodies from natural infections, vaccinated individuals and people whose resistance to the virus has waned over time.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s all-but-certain plan for COVID-19 vaccine boosters to roll out this week is in trouble. Top health advisers called for the shots to be given eight months after the second dose of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines for most Americans. But the announcement got ahead of Food and Drug Administration scientists, who needed to review the data.

A government advisory panel rejected the proposal Friday but endorsed extra shots for those 65 or older or at risk of severe disease. The issue will continue to be considered Wednesday by advisers to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The debate over how to rev up protection against the virus looms in the backdrop of the ferocious delta variant, which has supplanted all other strains and now makes up over 99% of Virginia cases.

Confirmed cases have risen to at least 622,000 in the state, with 12,242 suspected deaths, according to the Virginia Department of Health. About 10% of standard nasal swab tests came back positive last week, and close to 3,600 new cases are being diagnosed each day.

U.Va. scientists tracking the crisis continue to forecast a peak in statewide case rates at the start of October.

The surge mirrors what’s happening across the nation. Some 41.8 million infections have been reported throughout the United States, according to Johns Hopkins University, and 670,000 Americans have died.

About 227.2 million cases have been confirmed worldwide, with 4.7 million deaths.

Virginians hospitalized for confirmed or suspected COVID-19 rose to 2,174 on Friday. Almost 30% of them were in an intensive care unit, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association. More than half of COVID-19 patients in intensive care were on ventilators.

Unvaccinated people have made up the vast majority of the state’s cases and serious illnesses.

Though so-called “breakthrough cases,” infections in fully vaccinated individuals, are happening more often with the delta variant, they are still considered uncommon. So far there have been 23,334 statewide; 230 were fatal.

During the week ending Sept. 11, completely unvaccinated people had infections at a rate almost 16 times that of fully vaccinated people, according to the state health department.

In Hampton Roads, 58 new deaths were reported last week: 13 in Virginia Beach; 12 in Hampton; seven in Newport News; six in Accomack County; four in Norfolk; three each in James City County and Portsmouth; two each in Chesapeake, Franklin and York County; and one each in Suffolk and Isle of Wight, Gloucester and Middlesex counties.

Virginia Beach’s caseload surpassed last week’s and was the highest in the region, reporting 1,333 new infections.

High caseloads are expected in bigger cities, but some communities with fewer people see greater rates of new cases per capita. For last week, Franklin ranked the highest in the region based on population size, at 86 per 100,000 people. By comparison, Virginia Beach had 42, and Norfolk had 33.

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State public health officials say vaccination is the most effective tool at preventing the virus from spreading, but testing is still important to help identify individuals who have it. The health department is increasing testing events throughout Virginia as demand increases.

A regional vaccination site at the former Military Circle Mall Macy’s store is offering free walk-in tests on Mondays. Beginning last week, Wednesdays became an additional vaccination day, allowing the clinic to administer shots Tuesdays through Thursdays.

Here’s a look at vaccination rates throughout the region. These figures do not include the 590,000 doses administered to Virginians by the federal government, such as military, because location information has not been provided for them:

In Virginia Beach, 67% of adults and 56% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 50% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Norfolk, 52% of adults and 44% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 38% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Newport News, 62% of adults and 51% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 45% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Chesapeake, 65% of adults and 54% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 48% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Portsmouth, 57% of adults and 47% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 40% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Hampton, 62% of adults and 52% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 45% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In James City County, 78% of adults and 66% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 60% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Poquoson, 74% of adults and 62% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 56% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In York County, 70% of adults and 58% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 52% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Suffolk, 64% of adults and 53% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 47% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Williamsburg, 57% of adults and 52% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 46% of all residents are fully inoculated.

For other pandemic data, go to www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus.

For more information on where to find vaccines, visit vaccinate.virginia.gov or www.vaccines.gov. For phone assistance, call 1-877-VAX-IN-VA.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Elisha Sauers, 757-839-4754, elisha.sauers@pilotonline.com