:quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tronc/37K43R7SEJHENGJDOA7ZDB2PRY.jpg)
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a hurricane season close to the historic norm for the next six months, thanks to a potential offset of severity from El Nino conditions.
But that doesn’t mean we can rest easy.
NOAA scientists announced their predictions at a press conference Thursday in Maryland. Rick Spinrad, oceanographer and administrator of NOAA, said during the briefing that the outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to Nov. 30, predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of above-normal activity and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 named storms that have winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, five to nine could become hurricanes, or storms with winds of 74 mph or higher, including one to four “major” hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges, and the forecast does not specify what part of the Atlantic coast would see more or fewer storms.
“We know that recent hurricane seasons have been particularly busy with three back-to-back La Nina events, which only increase the threat of hurricanes,” Don Graves, deputy secretary of commerce, said. “Last year alone, we saw 14 named storms accumulate, three of them hurricanes that hit the United States, causing a collective $117 billion in damages when adjusted for inflation.”
Administrators said several factors went into the prediction, including sea surface temperature and a strong possibility for El Nino, or a phase associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. El Nino effects tend to bring on a less severe season, but with warmer surface water temperatures, conditions for 2023 are a “rare setup,” according to Matthew Rosencrans, a meteorologist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Breaking News
“When I look back on the historical data we have, we’ve had anywhere from six named to almost 18 named storms during the El Ninos. In the stronger of El Nino events, usually the less amount of storms you have. But we are also in an active era and having a strong El Nino with an active era and such warm (surface sea temperatures), I’ve only seen them one other time, and there’s not a lot of analog evidence for it.”
In recent months, the administration has expanded access to post-storm relief, mainly through policy changes to the types of documentation accepted to prove home ownership and occupation. Because of this update, FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said an additional 128,000 individuals and families now qualify for assistance. Under previous policy, they would have been left out.
“The time to prepare is today, the time to prepare is now,” she said. “First, know what your risk is. Hurricanes, they are more than just the cone that we see (in predictions). They are storm surge. They are significant rainfall. They are carbon monoxide poisoning after. There are so many other hazards and so you need to know what your risk is, where you live, so you can take the appropriate measures to protect your family.”
Spinrad emphasized that just because the total count of hurricanes is “normal,” that does not mean there should be any less preparation.
“It only takes one storm to devastate a community,” he said. “Regardless of the statistics I shared, if one of those named storms is hitting your home (or) your community, it’s very serious.”
For hurricane safety tips, visit our weather page at PilotOnline.com.
Eliza Noe, eliza.noe@virginiamedia.com